Fallacies and Errors·Rules·Lesson 4 of 5

Bayesian and Problem-Solving Fallacies

Extends the taxonomy to probabilistic updating and practical strategy selection, showing how base-rate neglect and option-space failure behave across both domains.

← Inductive, Abductive, and Best-Explanation Fallacies Fallacies and Reasoning Errors Capstone: Diagnosing, Repairing, and Communicating Fallacies →

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In this lesson · 7 sections · 5 worked examples · 2 practice activities

Why probability has its own fallacies
Base-rate neglect: ignoring how common the hypothesis was to begin with
Likelihood-posterior confusion and the prosecutor's fallacy
Over-updating and under-updating: miscalibrated belief revision
…and 3 more

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