Bayesian Probability·Formalization·Lesson 2 of 4

Base Rates and Conditional Probability

Shows how to structure a probabilistic problem so that base rates and conditionals are not confused, and performs simple quantitative Bayesian updates using a natural-frequency format.

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In this lesson · 7 sections · 5 worked examples · 4 practice activities

The base rate sets the stage
Natural frequencies make Bayesian problems manageable
P(E | H) is not P(H | E): the conditional direction trap
The false positive rate: the denominator you cannot ignore
…and 3 more

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